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GLS Stock IPOs for Week of February 11, 2009

Posted by Brian Shiau at 4:23PM on February 4, 2009

You will be able to buy or short sell Global Lifetime Sales (GLS) Stocks at a fixed price for 48 hours. This allows all players equal access to the stock's IPO regardless of the time they log on. After 48 hours, the futures will trade as normal. All players, regardless of Basic or Advanced trading mode, will be able to participate in the IPO. All players are limited to 250,000 DKP positions in the IPO phase.

If you want a game listed for trading, be sure to bid for it in the Unlisted Games section.






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January 2009 Rankings

Posted by Brian Shiau at 3:47PM on February 4, 2009

Congratulations to wrangler_smoked for placing first in the month of January 2009 with a 47.51% return.

Check out the complete January 2009 rankings.


Tags: simexchange predictionmarkets prediction+markets wisdomofcrowds web2.0


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GLS Stock IPOs for Week of February 2, 2009

Posted by Brian Shiau at 6:56PM on January 31, 2009

You will be able to buy or short sell Global Lifetime Sales (GLS) Stocks at a fixed price for 48 hours. This allows all players equal access to the stock's IPO regardless of the time they log on. After 48 hours, the futures will trade as normal. All players, regardless of Basic or Advanced trading mode, will be able to participate in the IPO. All players are limited to 250,000 DKP positions in the IPO phase.

If you want a game listed for trading, be sure to bid for it in the Unlisted Games section.




Tags: simexchange predictionmarkets prediction+markets wisdomofcrowds web2.0


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March 2009 Console Futures

Posted by Brian Shiau at 12:27PM on January 22, 2009

March Console Futures will be IPOing next week. Unlike the past, there will be only one console future debuting each day of the week. However, remember that February 2009 Monthly Sales Futures are also making IPOs next week.

You will be able to buy or short sell the Futures at a fixed price for 48 hours. This allows all players equal access to the future's IPO regardless of the time they log on. After 48 hours, the futures will trade as normal. All players, regardless of Basic or Advanced trading mode, will be able to participate in the IPO. All players are limited to 250,000 DKP positions in the IPO phase.



Tags: simexchange predictionmarkets prediction+markets wisdomofcrowds web2.0


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February 2009 Monthly Sales Futures

Posted by Brian Shiau at 12:47PM on January 21, 2009

February Monthly Sales Futures for software are making their debut next week. Remember, there are new rules regarding Monthly Software Futures. If a game does not finish in NPD Group's Top 10, the game will cash out at the sales of the #10 title. Games receiving Monthly Sales Futures are suggested by Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR). The games selected should have a 95% chance of making the Top 10 each month.

Godfather II (Xbox 360) is also making a GLS stock IPO on Monday. The game was suggested by mrahaju.

You will be able to buy or short sell the Futures and GLS stock at a fixed price for 48 hours. This allows all players equal access to the future's IPO regardless of the time they log on. After 48 hours, the futures will trade as normal. All players, regardless of Basic or Advanced trading mode, will be able to participate in the IPO. All players are limited to 250,000 DKP positions in the IPO phase.

F.E.A.R. 2: Project Origin (Xbox 360) will also be IPOing as a GLS Stock and a February Monthly Sales Future. This IPO will occur on Sunday, January 25. The PS3 version will also receive a GLS stock. The game was suggested by Joe80 and kspraydad.



Tags: simexchange predictionmarkets prediction+markets wisdomofcrowds web2.0


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User created threads in the forums

Posted by Brian Shiau at 11:31PM on January 18, 2009

As requested, the General Forum and the Help Forum now enable users to create custom threads. This should allow for more diverse conversations.

To start a new thread in the General Forum, go to the General Forum by using the "Channel" pull down menu on the left side of the Community section. Then click on "Start a new thread." Add the title of the thread and the comment of the post and hit submit. Thread titles are limited to 60 characters.

The main page for viewing discussion threads may get crowded, so we added filters in the Channel pull down menu. You can now view just the offical game threads or unlisted game threads through applying filters.

We also fixed some bugs. When posting comments to an official game thread, you will now be redirected to the thread, rather than an aggregation of comments on the game.

Still to come: Comments on Game pages will be reorganized into threads.

Please report any bugs you encounter. Feel free to offer suggestions and post feedback!


Tags: simexchange predictionmarkets prediction+markets wisdomofcrowds web2.0


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December 2008 NPD Data

Posted by Brian Shiau at 3:49PM on January 15, 2009

Video game hardware sales in December 2008 were inline with the market expectations. Total hardware units (excluding PS2) sold were 8,376,000 compared to the market's expectation for 8,812,000 units sold.

Nintendo Wii was the only console to sell below the market expcations, selling 2,150,000 units compared to an expected 3,030,000 units.

The Xbox 360 sold double that of the PS3 with 1,440,000 units sold against the PS3's 726,000 units. Both platforms were in line with the markets expectations.

The Nintendo DS sold 3,040,800 units compared to the expected 2,670,000 units. The Sony PSP sold 1,020,000 units, compared to the expected 935,900 units.

Growth in video game sales were ahead of expectations for December. Total video game software sales grew 15% from $2.39 billion in December 2007 to $2.75 billion. Traders on the simExchange prediction market expected $2.5 billion.

Most hardware and software sales were within 10% of the simExchange prediction market's expectations. The market also tracked the sales of Prince of Persia (Xbox 360), which did not make the top 10.

The following tables compare market expectations on the simExchange and actual results as reported by the NPD Group.

  • US Hardware in December 2008

    Title Actual units Expected units % From Expected
    Nintendo DS 3,040,000 2,670,000 +13.86%
    Nintendo Wii 2,150,000 3,030,000 -29.04%
    Xbox 360 1,440,000 1,420,000 +1.41%
    PlayStation Portable 1,020,000 935,000 +9.09%
    PLAYSTATION 3 726,000 757,000 -4.10%
    PlayStation 2 410,000 -- --
    Total Hardware Units 8,376,000 8,812,000 -4.95%


How exactly does this work?

Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using virtual currency called DKP, players buy virtual futures contracts that are under-predicting sales and short sell futures that are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market."

About the predictions

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as (1) the diversity of the pool of traders increases and as (2) more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).


Tags: simexchange predictionmarkets prediction+markets wisdomofcrowds web2.0


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January 2009 Metacritic Futures

Posted by Brian Shiau at 12:27PM on January 15, 2009

Metacritic Futures for some highly anticipated games will kickstart IPOs for the New Year. The IPOs will be the first test of the new IPO process.

You will be able to buy or short sell the Futures at a fixed price for 48 hours. This allows all players equal access to the future's IPO regardless of the time they log on. After 48 hours, the futures will trade as normal. All players, regardless of Basic or Advanced trading mode, will be able to participate in the IPO. All players are limited to 250,000 DKP positions in the IPO phase. We will review the IPOs on a day-by-day basis and may tweak the process as necessary.


Tags: simexchange predictionmarkets prediction+markets wisdomofcrowds web2.0


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December 2008 Rankings

Posted by Brian Shiau at 4:41PM on January 14, 2009

Congratulations to OuterHaven for placing first in the month of December 2008 with a 40.90% return. This is the third month in a row OuterHaven has topped the monthly charts!

Check out the complete December rankings.


Tags: simexchange predictionmarkets prediction+markets wisdomofcrowds web2.0


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More intuitive basic trading mode

Posted by Brian Shiau at 4:13PM on January 14, 2009

We've slightly redesigned the basic trading mode to be more intuitive for players new to trading. Placing a trade should not be difficult to do, so we want to make this as understandable as possible.

The Order Book displays the number of shares you can buy or sell at a certain price. In the basic trading mode, you will only see the best offers to buy or sell. You do not have to buy the whole lot that is being offered. Rather, you can buy UP TO the number of shares offered at that price. Additionally, these are the number of shares that are being offered, and not the number of shares you can afford.

You can also enter a number larger than what is being offered. The remainder of your order will be filled at the best available prices (which are not currently displayed).

To place a trade, enter the number of shares you want to trade in the form. Then click either the Buy or Sell button to place your trade.

Remember, you can sell shares even if you do not currently own any shares. This is called Short Selling. The reason to short sell is if you believe the current price is too high. To close your short sell position, simply buy back the shares later. Sell high, Buy low.


Tags: simexchange predictionmarkets prediction+markets wisdomofcrowds web2.0


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