@pilias_simber,

I still think we agree. My logic is this: The majority of those who bought MGS3 are hardcore players, thats the only way I can explain such a low adoption rate for a AAA title like MGS while 120 million systems are out there.

Likewise I expect PS3 sales to pick-up, and that at least 4 million metal gear players plan to buy a PS3 for this game if they haven't already.

I only stated that I believed 350 DKP to be too low since I have no reason to believe this game to under-perform the last Metal Gear title. I still feel and 400-450 DKP to be about right. I was merely observing/gaming the pendulum swing of the resulting correction.

@pilias_simber,

Again...I don't have a position but I don't think anyone HAS to justify if they are selling or buying if they don't want to.

In a real market you don't know the motivation of other investors and their choices to buy or sell may not be influenced by the same factors as yours. They don't have to disclose to the market what their motivations are.

Again...it is the difficulty of SE that we are supposed to predict long term value yet are set up to 'compete' against each other by having us ranked. It turns the focus from value prediction to focus on moving up the leader board...many a time for the wrong reasons. (I am not claiming innocence here)

@zeromous,

Honestly I don't see how a game on a console that is currently projected to sell half as many is even going to maintain 75% of it's previous sales on the previous system. This Genre has increased competition now and not everyone who bought a PS2 is willing to drop 500 bucks on a PS3 to buy this game, even if they did buy it on a previous system.

Will this game be a system seller?
Probably enough to help justify a portion of 60 million PS3s sold when it currently only has about 3.5 million sold, but I don't think it will do anywhere near as well as the previous generation's did when the PS has a much larger share of the gamer market.

@kspraydad,

Personally I believe that the strenth of Halo 3's hype is still to strong to overcome the price of the game. The MGS4 hype, while still strong, is not nearly so because of the continued rumor of a 360 port and the solid sales data of past games showing a downward sales trend.

IMO this stock is a sure thing to short because we know it will drop and stay relatively low. Halo 3 could be shorted with a concentrated effort by the top members but it would eventually rise back up.

Notice I'm also not advocating shorting FFXIII, Smash Bros, Mario Galaxy, or even the Wii stock right now. The hype for these stocks is still to high to overcome the stock price.

@kspraydad,

Actually, like Zukaus I have a TON of stocks that I have positions on with only 1-10 shares in the stock. I do this because it helps to mask where my money is.