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Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3)
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1 bids
@pilias_simber,
Hey...
I see that you hold a long position on HALO 3 when we are currently projecting 12 million in sales on a machine that is currently projecting 60 million in sales (which I don't agree with but their you have it)...I take it then that you support this valuation.
So why would a prediction of 5 million MGS on a machine that is projected to sell 60 million be so off base?
Is MGS not as much a 'must have' for the PS crowd as Halo is for the MS crowd?
I don't have a position in either game...just trying to figure out if I should .
[ Oracle ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 18 ]4 bids
@pilias_simber,
Just because you shorted a stock and are now getting burned doesn't mean people have to justify thier actions towards you.
Frankly I agree that the price is too high, but that's the market for you, and you sorta have to take that into account.
Of course you are ranked alot higher then me, so what do I know.
[ Newbie ] [ Level 10 ] [ Rank: 2399 ]-1 bids
@pilias_simber,
WTF? Can those people buying this stock back up please post their reasoning for why the stock should go up, I see no comments and the stock just rose from 350DKP to 480.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 11 ]0 bids
I know some people may be hesitant to short this stock because of it's popularity, but this stock remains overvalued and those who buy stocks based on hype instead of sales figures tend to get burned when the sales data comes out. Better to let this stock drop down to a better price now and keep it down than just let it climb to absurd levels.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 11 ]1 bids
@pilias_simber,
True of course, so even more reason to believe that the status of MGS4's exclusivity is completely irrelevant due to the nature of it's fanbase.
I wonder how many of the current < 4 million PS3 owners are Metal Gear players. I'm the sure the sell-trough rate would be artificially high compared to other games :)
[ Veteran ] [ Level 12 ] [ Rank: 134 ]1 bids
@zeromous,
The XBox version didn't sell very well at all though.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 11 ]2 bids
@judge_khan,
It's worth mentioning that MGS2 sold 5.52 million copies despite also being a timed exclusive (with its re-release on XBox).
[ Veteran ] [ Level 12 ] [ Rank: 134 ]2 bids
@pilias_simber,
Thanks Pilias, it is definately overvalued (even beyond yesterday's speculative jump).
I consider MGS3 to be the best game in the series and I do believe the MGS4 can help gain back some of its lost lustre and trust from MGS2. MGS2's hype (and ultimate failure to deliver) caused a lot of fair-weather fans to simply give up in disgust- and I don't blame them.
I think MGS3 sales represent the hardcore contingent of gamers that will buy anything Metal Gear (good or bad), and any sales after that are simply gravy for Konami.
If it is not delayed further MGS4 could make up a lot of 'gravy' following the normally quiet Christmas season. Your estimates are right on the money with what I believe to be modest growth for this series.
[ Veteran ] [ Level 12 ] [ Rank: 134 ]2 bids
@pilias_simber,
It'll be the first and last on the PS3.
I find it hard to justify the 6.6M copies currently predicted. That's over a million more than the best selling MGS game on the PSX, based on zeromous's figures below.
And that 5.59M is based on a console that sold in excess of 100M. That's 5-6% attach rate. On the PS2, the attach rate is lower because MGS2 and 3 sold less on a larger user base.
Based on our own lifetime prediction of PS3 sales at roughly 59M, a generous 6% attach rate would only attract a little over 3.5M copies.
If, and that's IF in capital letters, MGS4 is no longer going to be exclusive, it will hurt sales of the PS3 version further.
At this current stage, this stock is overvalued.
[ Elite ] [ Level 18 ] [ Rank: 31 ]
About Us - The simExchange is the video game stock market and the source for video game sales forecasts.
As far as I'm concerned a person's ranking in the forum does not make their comments any more or less valid, I look at the substance of what they're saying.
IMO anyone who is buying this stock should justify it because myself and a number of people before me have laid out a number of reasons why this stock is way way overpriced.
When a stock jumps in price like that I AM going to post a comment and ask why people are suddenly buying up the stock. If I don't get a response then I feel confident that its just people not reading the comments, likely buying it because they liked the E3 trailer and I don't have to worry because I know the stock will eventually fall.
I take a long term look at stocks, but I do pay attention to sudden jumps, and in the course of about 10 minutes this stock's price rose from 350-480 with no comment to back up the price.