@ixaarii, I must disagree with you on the SingStar vs Guitar Hero analysis. Much more people of the gaming demographic would likely want to be a rock star than a pop star. I'm not sure which country you are from, but electronic music is not popular at all in the US (I assume you are from Europe).
In the US, the most popular music right now is hip hop/rap (Kanye West, 50 Cent, Timbaland, Beyonce, etc.) If there was a Rap Hero game, it would probably do very well. Rock isn't as popular as it was before, but much of the gaming demographic isn't all that trendy and still listen to rock. Many more gamers would pretend to be Metallica than pretend to be Clay Aiken.
@Laoldar, 500,000 is probably the case with a game as expensive as MGS4. Most games don't have development budgets anywhere near this size so the equation must be a bit different.
@ixaarii, in terms of MGS sales needing a strong first day, this is the case with most products in the public spotlight. Were iPhone sales really critical to the first day in terms of total cash flow for the lifetime of the product? No...but the entire world was watching how well it sold on day one. People want to know if other people thought the product is worth buying.
This is why the first weekend is key for a movie. If you have a bad first weekend in the box office, no one else is going to go see your movie either the second weekend. There just isn't any buzz for your movie.
Most of these products you can forecast lifetime sales based on the very early sales and scale them out (which is why we don't need to trade lifetime stocks until every copy is off the shelves).
Oh and just for the sake of comparison (sorry for not including this in the previous post), Nintendo's 2006 numbers show revenue of $7.8 billion with net income of $1.4 billion...so they actually make more profit than Sony, a larger corporation with 10 times the revenue.
You're welcome. You can just google for them, or check Wikipedia (which links to the financial reports of the companies for its info).
I've always said that Sony has to be careful about the profits/revenue of its gaming division as it's simply another section of a large corporation. Unlike Microsoft (which has money to burn in the interest of gaining a new foothold) or Nintendo (which has always maintained a healthy profit margin on their systems), Sony doesn't have a lot of wiggle room to work with.
@Laoldar,
the reason I would assume that is because I think more people are into non-rock music, simply because there's multiple genres there. Both because of pop & electronic music and because I had assumed that the number of people who have wanted to learn say guitar would be outnumbered by those who sing along to stuff. That is why I would think a property like Singstar could be much more hot if used properly than a rock-instrument oriented one. Though i still hold to that line of reasoning I do totally see your point of view where an instrument-object might cut off inhibitions and thus do more.
As far as the MSvsSony revenues & profitability: WOW! that was very insightful! thank you so very much! Where did you get those numbers, if I may ask? With those numbers in mind one of the biggest things I had put on their side: the fact that they're a company focused on profitability may turn against them and it suddenly seems possible to me that they might turn into more profitable pastures if MS over-cashes them. This does seem to fit in with the fact that they'd rather develop than pay for exclusives and the to me rather shocking news that they abandoned Cell research and opted to go for some kind of lens reasearch if I understood right. I had always figured a Cell 2 would be a logical next step for them, as it seemed to me from tech articles that technologically it's exactly the kind of architecture that benefits from more cores (I think I was reading they cut back on the number of p/sPUs, but that the technology is very fit for evolution... but I'm really not sure about that info). So should this press on it could indeed go either way with them choosing to go maybe into more profitable fields like cameras and displays... still, that would be a surprising move considering their present media empire.
I'd disagree...I think people are more likely to get into a rhythm game (like Guitar Hero) than a singing one as many people simply cannot sing.
Oh and as to why Microsoft has more money:
In the fiscal year 2007 Microsoft had revenue of $51 billion, with net income of over $14 billion.
In fiscal 2007, Sony had revenue of revenue of $70 billion, with profits of $1 billion.
So while Sony has a higher level of revenue and is a more diversified company, Microsoft is a MUCH more profitable company due to having lower costs across the board.
@Laoldar,
Amazed at how it's possible for MS to have so much more money than Sony. I had expected they'd be somewhat on equal footing.
On Singstar: the reason I think it could be/is a big deal is not because of past sales but because I think it's a great concept: I myself am not at all into music games, however seeing the huge success of GH & Rock Band I think: how many people are into rock & guitars and how many people are into singing. I believe the singing market is a much bigger market... if only it got exploited. I don't really agree that Sony neglected to go for the casual market. Actually I believe with things like Buzz and Singstar they were quite the visionaries... I believe they just lucked out in that sector. A big reason I believe is human nature: I listen to music on my mp3 player, I don't want to do it on my cellphone, even though i could. Similarly the new system marketed specifically at this market got a significantly more enthusiastic response than say the ps2 at a new sector. A parent buying a ps2 for casual games may have felt like he's opening the gateway for their children to 'harcore' games...
If you put out a game that sells well below expectations, why would you think it will have a positive effect on hardware sales? Since Sony loses money on that end too, it only becomes a positive if it attracts a new consumer (one who was not planning to buy it for another game) who then goes on to purchase many more titles. It's a very risky strategy that can quickly put a company into financial trouble.
Also, the point of the PS3 is to sell discs...both games and movies (Blu-Ray). If it fails to do either, it will be an immense failure (Sony does not need more awareness, they're easily one of the most recognizable electronics companies in the world).
There is a major difference between what Sony and what Microsoft can do as corporations...MS has the cash. Microsoft has tens of billions of dollars in reserve that they can use to break into a new sector (such as their losses in gaming until this past quarter). Sony does not have that money and in fact recently needed more credit due to their poor performance recently. Whle Microsoft can spend billions in the hopes of future gains, Sony cannot.
I agree with you that Singstar was (and is) a great concept that has been successful. I think a failing of Sony's is that they have failed to capitalize on the mainstream success of the PS/PS2. The strategy of Nintendo's Wii is a natrual progression of the "something for everyone" style of the PS2. Sony was perfectly positioned to control the new so-called "casual" market, but they neglected to do so.
In the US, the most popular music right now is hip hop/rap (Kanye West, 50 Cent, Timbaland, Beyonce, etc.) If there was a Rap Hero game, it would probably do very well. Rock isn't as popular as it was before, but much of the gaming demographic isn't all that trendy and still listen to rock. Many more gamers would pretend to be Metallica than pretend to be Clay Aiken.