@Deltaneutral,
I know, thats why I am trying to put out periodic notes when I see stocks like this that have drifted up to the absurd range with their prices. We usually see them dip down and then pick up again over time.
@pilias_simber, the problem with these titles is that a lot of people think they sell a lot more than they do. Or we picked up a lot more new users and they tend to buy big name franchise games.
"Hideo Kojima revealed today at Konami's Metal Gear Solid 4-only press conference the "Beauty and the Beast" story theme for Kojima Productions' next. The game will feature a number of characters and bosses based on real-life actresses and models, all of whom were motion captured by Kojima Productions to lend an extra dose of reality to their virtual characters, a first for the series." Pictures of Yumi Kikuchi included.
You may want to check your facts on MGS2. I wouldn't call the Wiki a good source for sales information.
From vgchartz:
5.56 MGS2
0.16 Substance PS2
= 5.72 million
You also might want to note, that MGS3 (an arguably superior game) sold
3.96 MGS3
0.15 Subsistance
= a 4.11 million
That tells me that about 1.75 million people somewhat regretted buying MGS2 (I'd say they are ignorant, but that's not what this post is about) and chose not to add a better follow-up title to their collection.
Considering the install base of PS3 is so weak (you really predict 10 million by March 08? not with GTAIV delayed it won't) there is no way this title will eclipse 5 million in its shelf life. You'll be trading PS4 futures by the time it reaches this plateau.
I's thinking this will be a must have title for the PS3, providing it is still exclusive. The series has usually sold well, MGS2 in the 7 million range: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games#PlayStation_2
With a predicted 10 million PS3 sales by March '08 (http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/8442.cfm), I think long term it's a good buy.
The funny thing about this is that even without the rumor this stock is still pretty overpriced. Everyone who has purchased this stock and made it rise back up to 500 DKP have now made the stock severely overvalued again.
I know, thats why I am trying to put out periodic notes when I see stocks like this that have drifted up to the absurd range with their prices. We usually see them dip down and then pick up again over time.