The points you made are generally correct, however I think Lair's overall perception have been hurt by recent videos showing underwhelming graphics and gameplay concepts. Many people who previously thought they would like the game had some serious second thoughts.
New brands are never sure bets. But I think this game will beat the odds.
1. It plays to the PS3 audience very well. Largely a young male audience in NA and EU, who at the very least will be intrigued by the concept. (I am.)
2. Sony will put a lot of advertising muscle behind it. (Hopefully with a good ol' TV ad campaign that actually makes sense.)
3. Differentiation. It doesn't have to compete against a slew of similar titles.
4. The reviews count for this game. Much of the audience cares enough to at least check the scores at IGN, and those that don't listen to those that do. And with Factor 5, and the experience they have with the core gameplay mechanics from their awesome Rogue Squadron efforts, there's good reason to believe its going to get excellent reviews.
This game may not be as big and important as Gears of War for 360, but it may be like Animal Crossing on Gamecube. That game was a new IP (outside of Japan), it released in September of 2002, to a small install base, but it stood out from the field, it had the backing it needed from Nintendo, and it struck a chord with the audience... And it went on to sell 1.6 million copies in NA...
Keep in mind this title was delayed again till September and that means that there will be much more PS3's and the fact that this stock market is life time sales not 1-2 month sales is another reason a million on this should be fairly easy if they dont F it up and from the looks of it and seeing a few vids I have no doubt this game will rock.
I find it difficult to believe that this title is going to have an attach rate of nearly 33%. I'm sure it will be an excellent title, but I have to remain quite skeptical as a million seller.
just one question, what is it's rating? (E,T,M,Ao etc.) Because if it's 'T' then it'll do better than if it was 'E'. Then again, it's it too high then it will limit how many kids will 'be allowed' to play it.
Lair is being developed by Factor 5, the same group that brought the excellent Star Wars: Rogue Squadron series on the N64 and Gamecube, so you know they know something about making things that fly and blow up. :-)
The screenshots for this game and everything I have read about it make this game sound pretty cool.
Despite being on the least successful of the 3 consoles I predict that this game will do reasonably well, especially considering it is coming out just about the time all those Euro gamers will be finishing up Resistance Fall of Man and be out looking for a new game to play.
You're right! Complete brain fart on my part...funny thing is it got up voted!
I'll see if I can get it redacted!
Apologies all round.