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Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360)
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vGInfidel posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 9:34AM PST on February 14, 2008.ive set the "barrier" to 1000 dkp for the time being as thats the price im happy to pay for buying back my short positions. that way i can make a good profit quicker and my money isnt tied up for too long. i dont think that it will reach even this amount but i dont want to wait for it to go down much further.[ Guru ] [ Level 18 ] [ Rank: 91 ]Permalink | Reply1 bids
@Mushashi,
I have been wondering why your performance this month is not as good as January. So this is the culprit. 20% loss is a very big deal. It is fortunate that my investment in this stock is only 200K DKP so far, and with early warning from those "burned" person, I can avoid falling into the same mistake.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 28 ]1 bids
@apujanata,
I was short on this GLS a long time , lost almost 20%. It was just hindering my performance so I quit my position, forget going against the crowd too early on any popular GLS.
[ Guru ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 33 ]2 bids
@Just_Ben,
Thanks for sharing your experience. After taking your input, this is how I am going to treat all those stock (GLS) : Whenever I have free money, and no future that are at the right price to buy / short, I will look at stocks, and invest in them if the price difference is significant (like 50%).
I think there will be significant movement of this stock after the first months sales data comes out (from NPD). Since that is 3 months away, I will be very careful, and try not to be overzealous.
@sagexsdx,
I just noticed that a lot of the Top 10 have shorted this stock : Joe80 (rank 4), Arbiter (rank 5), pilias_simber (rank 6), laoldar (rank 10). Even with those high networth people shorting this stock, it still manage to keep on increasing. I am very afraid of this stock.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 28 ]1 bids
@apujanata,
i've been shorting it for a while. and have been losing a percentage on it =)
[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 24 ]3 bids
@vGInfidel,
Well, I have to say something about that discussion thing. GTA has discussed to death, a lot of people talking it down, and it keep going bought up again. Discuss how much you want, but unless sales prove you right, more people think you are wrong. Plain and Simple.
I personal don't discuss that much anymore. Why? Well in the futures, I see if I am right on a date. Plain and simple. On a stock? It didn't helped me a thing so far. I can have a point, a lot of people agrees in the discussion but the stock doesn't move as it should. And if it moves, and news come in that I was wrong, I am more or less responsible that other "followed" me.
This game is about predicting sales, your right. And in the end, those who are right are most likely rewarded. Other people don't have to give a reason why they are doing x or y. All of them will have their thoughts on stocks and games. It can not be that this stock is only moved by "the stupid mass". If enough people believe it would sell less, than the price is lower. If the mass make constantly such "stupid" prediction like some here suggest, they would be serious hurt by losses. Those who keep it at the current price have either a short and buying it back at a profit, or have serious amount of money. And if they have have that kind of money, they have it for a reason, because they where right before. plain and simple. That is the game you are in and signed up for, plain and simple.
If you don't like that the GLS are more or less guessing (which they are, if no data gets available) than don't invest and go to the future market. If you are very right with your positions, you can make more money way faster than with the GLS anyway.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 7 ]2 bids
Additional comment : Someone with significant money has put barrier at the 1000 DKP price point. I see at least 1 Million DKP barrier. Unless someone with a lot of money can break through this barrier, I am not sure that it is possible for this stock to go to the appropriate level.
Sagexsdx, with your high worth, you could be key in this stock. Do you agree that this stock should be shorted ? Are you willing to commit your money on this stock ?
The more people agree that this stock is overvalued, and are willing to commit their money, the bigger the possibilities that this stock can go down.
I am willing to commit my money, but without any friend, I will not commit a large percentage of my networth (unless there was no other worthy stock for my investment).
[ Oracle ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 28 ]1 bids
@vGInfidel,
I don't agree with your assessment regarding Halo vs GTA. You think that Halo is a bigger series.
If you only consider X360 / XBOX platform, then your statement is correct. But when you consider all platform, it is a different story.
GTA : San Andreas (all platform) sales # in US alone is 47% higher than Halo 2 (standard + Limited). For GTA:SA PS2 vs XBOX, 13% are sold on XBOX, while 87% are sold on PS2.
Halo 3 current prediction is 9.5 Million. If we increase them by 50%, we got 14.2 Million. Current GTA4 is 11.5 X360 + 7.1 PS3 = 18.6.
Total combined GTA 4 is too high. It should be 14 Million.
It is up to you to decide what are the right breakdown percentage between PS3 and X360 version. Since it has been proven that it is not true that PS3 version does not have online capability, I believe that it should be at worst 50%:50%, and at best 60% (PS3) : 40% (X360), which is way down from GTA:SA result : 87% (PS2) : 13% (XBOX).
I decrease PS3 share since their H/W LTD vs. X360 is much, much worse compared to PS2 vs. XBOX. Since there are lots of existing fans in PS brand, the drop will not be too severe (it will not happen that PS3 # will be less than X360 #).
Have fun trying to short this stock. Once I got my money free from NPD data release (should happen in about 12 more hours), I will start short selling this stock, IF the price is still at the current level (1154 DKP), or way above my best prediction : 7.1 Million.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 28 ]1 bids
@vGInfidel,
there's decent amount of conversation in places. i think the problem is that people with a good handle on the numbers and trends feel pretty discouraged due to events as of late. a lot of stock - no matter how overvalued it is and no matter how much people bring attention to the fact - seems to just keep going up and up.
only in the past couple weeks (i think after the january monthly winners came out) has there been such an overflow of articles. prior to this, i saw maybe 10-20 articles a day at TSE. now it spans many pages for 1 day.
hopefully the long timers and people with logical statements to make will keep sticking around.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 24 ]1 bids
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