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Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360)
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1 bids
@Just_Ben,
Agreed, and there already are competing spin offs, by the way. Saint's Row is the obvious one, and Saint's Row 2 is forthcoming some time in 2008. The "sandbox" has a lot more players than it used to, which to me is yet another reason to expect current gen sales that will be protracted as compared to the PS2 games of old. When those games came out, it was for a system that had almost no competition (until Xbox was stronger by the time San Andreas came out), and at a time when the whole genre was still new and fresh. Granted software sales as a whole have seen exponential growth year over year, but at the end of the day this just isn't a game that will almost double Halo 3's sales, especially given that H3 IS an exclusive!!
It's frustrating to have a ton of this shorted, but to know that I will periodically take a beating on it simply b/c the release is so far out and a lot of the players have unrealistic expectations! I suppose as long as I don't end up with margin calls it's OK though
[ Veteran ] [ Level 8 ] [ Rank: 562 ]2 bids
@chill21genlee,
Well GTA can sell 12 Million copies, but:
1. It is split between 2 platforms, so it should be 12 Million for both.
2. We are early in the lifespan, and the 2 target platforms are high priced. To high to many casual GTA players if you ask me, this ain't halo.
3. The current install base for both platforms is "relatively" low. By the time it would be big enough to sell actually such numbers, there will be Spin Offs of the game.
All together make it unreasonable high to me.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 7 ]1 bids
@Just_Ben,
OF course, the unclean masses all logged in at night and bought it right back up to ridiculous numbers again.... we knew that was going to happen ;o)
Seriously though, how can anyone that even has a basic concept of software sales and the metrics associated believe that 11-12 Mil is reasonable??
It's not even exclusive! I would think 7-8 Mil range tops, wouldn't you?
[ Veteran ] [ Level 8 ] [ Rank: 562 ]1 bids
1 bids
@ixaarii,
True in the short term, unfortunately you will see all the noobs and uneducated guessers buy it right back up. That's what's really frustrating about long positions for me as opposed to monthly futures or metacritic....those 2 markets are reconciled with hard facts within 60 days or so, whereas the long positions that are still far from release date are all over the map. But if you look at the real data available, it's just utterly unrealistic to expect this game to sell 10 or 12 million copies. The consoles life cycle isn't even going to be long enough to facilitate such numbers, IMO.
[ Veteran ] [ Level 8 ] [ Rank: 562 ]1 bids
1 bids
@Laoldar,
I couldn't agree more. We really think that this game is going to double the sales of Halo 3? If anything, I would think the two would be roughly equivalent, with maybe a 10-15% spread or so in favor of GTA IV based on hype and slightly more universal brand name recognition.
I just hope my margins don't get called by people artifically inflating this back up solely due to the fact that it's named Grand Theft Auto!!
[ Veteran ] [ Level 8 ] [ Rank: 562 ]3 bids
This price is INSANE!
The GTA series sold between 11-15 million each on the PS2 which had an install base of over 120 million. GTA4 will come out on a system that will probably sell between 30-45 million units, as well as having sales split with the PS3 (I would estimate about 60% of sales going to the 360).
If GTA on the 360 had the same attach rate as GTA on the PS2, it should be closer to 5.5 million.
If 13 million people want to buy this game (and going with my previous estimate of sales split with PS3), it should be closer to 7.5 million.
Personally I think both those systems (360/PS3) have lost a decent chunk of the audience that bought the GTA series. I think this game should be AT MOST 700 DKP and more realistically the price should be sitting around 500 DKP.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 6 ]1 bids
@kspraydad,
Nope, Fans maybe? But I wouldn't short it right now, it will just be bought up again. I made that mistake as a newbie. Wait until the game is near release.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 7 ]
About Us - The simExchange is the video game stock market and the source for video game sales forecasts.
As I said yesterday. The only one who could this share down and down and down again and again would be zukaus. And I understand why he isn't doing it. Thats why I am only short 200 shares on this one. Money would just be frozen to long to make a gain.