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Wii Play (Wii) November 2008 Sales
forecasts
796K
copies
Today's change:
0.00 (0.00%)
Daily Volume 0 Total Volume 195,631
| Publisher | Nintendo | Studio | Nintendo | Genre | Minigames | Release Date | 02/12/07 |
This future contract pays 1 DKP for each 10,000 units of Wii Play (Wii) sold in the US in the retail month of November 2008 according to the NPD Group. This retail month runs from November 2, 2008 to November 29, 2008. This contract expires at 11:30 PM PST on December 10, 2008.
bids
32
32
Wii Play to Sell The Most Over Wii Lifetime?
Gamedaily.com - January 9, 2008
Submitted by feelmyring (40) at 12:03PM PST on January 9, 2008
"Wii Play may end up topping all other Wii titles in sales over the course of the system's life, according to simExchange. Also, the DS in Dec. 07 may have set a new sales record."
Comments (1) | Permalink
Comments (1) | Permalink
bids
32
32
Wii Play Is Nintendo's Quiet Hit
Kotaku - October 19, 2007
Submitted by Kemkle33 (226) at 5:12PM PST on October 19, 2007
While not many people talk about group sessions of Wii Play at senior centers, it's been in the top five selling games for the last eight months straight.
Comments (1) | Permalink
Comments (1) | Permalink
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Wii Play Fact Sheet
gonintendo.com - February 6, 2007
Submitted by kujan (217) at 11:16AM PST on February 6, 2007
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11
11
NWR Review: 4.5/10
nintendoworldre... - February 9, 2007
Submitted by kujan (217) at 8:19AM PST on February 9, 2007
bids
10
10
Opposable Thumbs Review. Verdict: Buy
arstechnica.com - February 14, 2007
Submitted by kujan (217) at 1:58PM PST on February 14, 2007
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1 bids
@wrangler_smoked,
It's high because the vast majority of new Wii consoles require extra controllers and as a new owner, it makes sense to pick up at least one copy of Wii Play in the process of doing so.
The Wii's life cycle is a matter of opinion but I would say two years is very pessimistic and I wouldn't short this stock in a million years. It'll be top 10 in most regions in 2009, 2010 and possible a few years after that.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 33 ]1 bids
Why is this stock selling so high? "Price forecasts 35.47M copies sold" and the actual sales for this are way less then 35.47M; Wii Play has most likely a year or two to still sell decent numbers until the new consoles come out, and the new games for the new consoles come out.
[ Newbie ] [ Level 5 ] [ Rank: 1333 ]1 bids
@JoshuaJSlone,
You are right, it not safe to assume an 35% attachment rate using September's. When short, assume the highest figure, so you are covered either way.
I don't remember why, but I missed the boat on this one.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 23 ] [ Rank: 4 ]3 bids
@apujanata,
Using 45% to get 31.5 DKP is one reasonable argument, but if we go by September's 35% we end up with a much lower 24.7, which would at current price of 34.1 be about a 28% profit.
Though it is probably safer to assume an average percent rate than merely the previous month's.
[ Veteran ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 38 ]2 bids
1 bids
@JoshuaJSlone,
@kspraydad,
Since current price is 33.72, which means less than 10% profit IF it cash out at 31.5 DKP predicted price point, I don't want to invest in this. I prefer bigger margin than 10%, say 15 - 20%.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 23 ] [ Rank: 4 ]1 bids
1 bids
1 bids
Currently the NPD future for October calls for about 354K sales of Wii Play. In September it sold 243K, so this would be an 46% increase with one less week of sales. Seems pretty unlikely to me.
If the ratio of systems sold to Wii Play was the same as September, 354K Wii Plays would translate to a full million Wii sales in October, which is both quite unlikely and way above what simExchange currently predicts (694K).
[ Veteran ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 38 ]
About Us - The simExchange is the video game stock market and the source for video game sales forecasts.
Well, once X360 was released in 2005, did PS2 games died immediately ? No. PS2 software still selling better than X360 in 2005, and 2006. 2007 started to see X360 > PS2, but not by a big margin. 2008 is the "real" year PS2 S/W started decline severely. Same thing happened during PS1 transition to PS2.
IF (a big if) X720 is released on 2010 (possible, but <50% chance IMO), we can still see Wii Play selling up to 2012 or 2013. So it is still 4 - 5 years life for this S/W.
Like deftangel said, I also "wouldn't short this stock in a million years". I will only short this IF :
- It stop showing up in NPD Top 10
- Nintendo announce a new WiiMote+S/W bundle, to replace this game (not likely, but the possibility exist).