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MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining
MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining
FFunion - March 22, 2008
Submitted by OuterHaven (134) at 10:48PM PST on March 21, 2009
Throughout the year, it is assumed that the Playstation 3 will gain more ground with regards to multi-platform titles and going in to 2010, the Playstation 3 could very well have turned the tables. Street Fighter IV and Resident Evil 5 have had fairly even sales on both platforms and given the fact that Final Fantasy XIII is scheduled to come out in 2010, the pendulum may swing the other way. It is highly likely that Final Fantasy XIII would sell more on the Playstation 3 than the Xbox 360.
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oznerol posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 3:20PM PST on March 23, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining@Joe80,
I'm not closed off to this discussion. Now that I am clear about what you are claiming, I can discuss it. I previously wasn't in the mood to get into the numbers, but since you are persistent (not a bad thing), I will.
First, I need to ask you - how many PS3s were in US/EU households in 2007, 2008, and currently? How many 360s? How has that ratio changed?
How many PS3s vs. 360s are being sold monthly in the 2 regions? Is one out-pacing the other or are they increasing at the same rate?
The games they are directly comparing are sequels - which in itself is a bit erroneous, but I'll go with it.
I'll go with the soccer games because I can rule out a lot of the US because we don't follow soccer. Pro Evo 08 was released 10/26/2007 (EU). Pro Evo 09 was released 10/17/2008 (EU).
Evo 08 had an EU market of ~1.2mil PS3s vs. ~2mil 360s.
Evo 09 had an EU market of ~3.5mil PS3s vs. ~4.5mil 360s.
The rise was very similar: +~2.5 mil PS3s, +~2.5mil 360s. Surely, then, the ratios would stay the same!
Incorrect. If we look at the sales over years as percentages, the 360 had a ~225% increase, while the PS3 had a 292% increase in install base.
The ratios are merely catching up to the combination of the 360's year head start and the PS3s fairly slow start.
I suspect that the trend is not linear as the graphs given suggests - but are more asymptotic. I also believe that there is a max density for the sale of cross-platform games in general.
The data in the article is suggesting that there should be consistent growth over time - but in the video game industry that is actually rarely the case. Sales of sequels are historically unpredictable - some outsell their predecessors dramatically (Call of Duty 4), some decline gradually (Call of Duty: World at War), and some sell in waves (Madden, and many sports games).
This leads to conflicting data - as the total number of consoles is steadily increasing, but the total number of copies sold may not be.
To top it all off, there's really only 1 full year of data we can look at - 2008 data. In 2007, the PS3 was still in it's infancy and had nowhere near the same install base the 360 had, and we're only 4 months into 2009 so we can't make accurate claims for a game's total sales.
Though the 3rd graph listed - 360 vs. PS3 combined software sales - is already suggesting a slowdown in the ratio shift - mainly because sales of the 2 consoles are leveling out. And I think if sales continue to go the way they are, it will slow down even more and level off - asymptotically.
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Joe80 posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 3:17PM PST on March 23, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining@OuterHaven,
It's too bad your article was only taken at face value. But half of SE users apparently agree with you.
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OuterHaven posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 2:44PM PST on March 23, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining@OuterHaven,
Wow i think i got 10 downbids from this article alone. Depressing.
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OuterHaven posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 2:39PM PST on March 23, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining1 bids
Joe80 posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 2:25PM PST on March 23, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining@oznerol,
I think it was clear in my previous posts that I was arguing that some games have had their sales distributon go from mostly 360 to gains on PS3 and even more on PS3. And that this is possible for more games going forward. Not all games and not huge gains over 360.
But forget it. There is no point in arguing about something that people are completely closed off to.
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oznerol posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 2:21PM PST on March 23, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining@Joe80,
I really have no idea what you are arguing.
What exactly are you claiming the data in the article suggests?
The article claims that there is a downward trend in the distribution in sales of cross-platform PS3/360 games. It says that this trend is probable to continue, and PS3 game sales will overturn 360 sales given enough time (2010 FFXIII release date).
Are you agreeing with this?
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Joe80 posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 12:54PM PST on March 23, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining@welshbloke,
I remember over the past years people saying such and such title should sell better on PS3 but the difference was very big in favor of 360.
Did anyone look at the graphs in the article? It clearly shows games that used to sell more on 360, selling more on PS3. Is that not more than one incident?
@deftangel,
I've repeatedly stated what I thought the article shows, which is different from all the quotes within the article. It's very clear that some games will sell better on 360 and in the future possibly PS3 as users of each don't have identical tastes. The article's data clearly implies that not all games will sell better on 1 platform or the other.
The fact that the Arcade model could've got more casuals could mean that they are less likely to buy as many games, which could be one out of many reasons for differences in sales.
It doesn't tell you what will happen, but it does show what may be possible, it shows its more possible than people may have thought a year or two ago.
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deftangel posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 7:00AM PST on March 23, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining@oznerol,
I certainly think it's a bold claim from Microsoft, I wouldn't be so confident about making it myself.
On a related note, the Top 10's for February NPD has MK vs DC performing quite well on the PS3 at #10. Now that would be an interesting title to look at cross platform sales though the more I think of it, the more relevant the d-pad situation feels to me. I think Soul Calibur IV was similarly split.
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oznerol posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 6:45AM PST on March 23, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining@deftangel,
You summarized what I was trying to say nicely.
To simply draw a least-squares line and predict that line will continue is just wrong. That is all I was really trying to say.
I think PS3 and 360 sales of FF XIII will be about equal, honestly. But it's not because of the predictive "trend" listed in this article.
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welshbloke posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 4:53AM PST on March 23, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly DecliningI have my reservations over this data to my mind the only real evidence to date I have noticed is the closeness of the SFIV sales which I am sure can be answered by a number of factors one being given is the D Pad.
I am not sure what value RE5 has to this discussion as it would seem logical to expect this franchise to perform better on the Playstation than on the 360.
Interesting discussions and the most heated debate that has taken place in many a moon so please do continue.
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deftangel posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 2:09AM PST on March 23, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly DecliningLook;
The article implies that 2010 the PS3 will have "turned the tables" on the 360 in terms of multi-platform sales. That's an extrapolation on the "data" they have which doesn't take into account the mix of users within the install base and the sort of games they are likely to be buying. The implication is, the PS3 is somehow outperforming the 360 in software sales just because it has a smaller install base.
The 360 is at $199, has been out longer and recent months have seen the Arcade unit sell very well. It's hardly a massive jump to suppose that the 360 has made greater inroads into more casusal markets at this point in time.
I don't see any source for the data they are using either.
That sales of multi-platform titles on the PS3 have gotten closer to the 360's over time is obvious but this article really doesn't tell us very much apart from that, certainly not a pointer to future trends.
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Joe80 posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 8:06PM PST on March 22, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining@apujanata,
10 second-60 second window to invest, you mean that many people have been investing once a severely underrated stock has hit normal tradetime? If I had the opportunity to invest in Wii Sports Resort for instance when it was near 1000, I would've put millions into it.
@apujanata,
Ya, I don't recall ever stating that FF XIII would sell better on PS3 as a certainty, just that it looks like that could be possible. And that it looks like many major multiplatform titles on PS3 could outsell 360 versions (not by much).
@oznerol,
I saw it as descriptive statistics and their conclusion as stating what looks like could be possible, not inferential statistics and stating what will definitely be predicted.
It is also the only time I've seen anyone plot a comparison of multiplatform game sales on the 2 consoles. It definitely is more telling than most of what we see reported.
I think sales of FF XIII are also highly dependent on who actually wants the game, most PS3 users are simply interested in that type of game than 360 users, and that plays as large a role or larger than any potential shifts in platform choice would.
I don't take everything they claim in that article, such as the quotes you pick out, as truths, I only deduce from it what looks accurate from my own unique knowledge.
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oznerol posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 6:11PM PST on March 22, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining@Joe80,
I'm not really up to digging into the numbers to argue with you. But all I am saying is the article is not a true statistical analysis.
A trend requires far more than comparing 2 numbers over time.
See here for a top-level summary.
Simply plotting the numbers and finding the least-squares line is not sufficient.
If I were making a formal analysis to predict future sales of multi-platform games, I could not use these numbers to come to a logical conclusion. If I did and it was my job, I would be fired.
However, this site clearly is claiming that you can come to some conclusion, and that conclusion is FFXIII will sell more on the PS3. They say it quite a few times, actually:
"It would then be highly likely that Final Fantasy XIII would sell more on the Playstation 3 than the Xbox 360"
"So that means that all of the new consumers went to the Playstation 3, not the Xbox 360."
Etc.
It is pseudoscience and a poor statistical analysis.
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apujanata posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 5:55PM PST on March 22, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly DecliningThis is a nice and important article for us, simExers.
It is quite nice that the article didn't include games that are released on different dates (time exclusive), since its including can cause mis-interpretation of data.
To Joe80 and oznerol,
It is true that FFXIII PS3 may or may not surpass sales of FFXIII X360. The point of the article is that Microsoft's point have possibilities of becaming false for FFXIII. Witness the text taken from the article :
"the Playstation 3 could very well have turned the tables".
"the pendulum may very well swing the other way"
The only prediction in the article is "highly likely that Final Fantasy XIII would sell more on the Playstation 3 than the Xbox 360". You can argue whether it is highly likely or highly unlikely, but the fact remained that the article DID not claim that it is a certainty, and point out that it is possible that Microsoft's prediction are false, even for US+Europe only (including Japan will only increase PS3 market share, and decrease X360 share)
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Joe80 posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 4:17PM PST on March 22, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining@oznerol,
It is based on sales, that is completely statistical. It's merely indicating that future multiplatform games on PS3 could eventually outsell the same games on 360.
I cannot understand at all how you can argue the data points they show.
The data shows that the difference between them used to be 360 having on average 95% times more sales, and this is now down to 20% on average.
This has happened over time, time may or may not be the direct cause of it, but something is causing it to happen over time.
They did show individual game sales trends. The article is not about overall software sales it's about major multiplatform sales on each console.
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oznerol posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 3:49PM PST on March 22, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining@Joe80,
I agree that the things you listed shouldn't be ignored: UK sales, lower sales, control/content.
I am merely saying that the article is claiming a "trend" in the increase of PS3 sales which will ultimately end up with PS3 overcoming the 360 and have more games sold. This is a false claim.
It is not based on real statistics. Just because there is a correlation between time and a lowering ratio of 360 to PS3 game sales does not mean that time is the cause of it.
To define a true trend, there are other factors to consider - particularly the total number of consoles in households, individual game trends, total number of copies sold, etc.
The two consoles are at different points in their life cycle and they are growing at different rates in different locations.
I think this article is just another case of using misleading "statistics" to come to a predetermined conclusion. That is all.
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Joe80 posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 2:47PM PST on March 22, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining@deftangel,
More diverse userbase on 360 vs PS3 is opinionated. How do you not know if 360 owners also picked up a PS3 and started buying most of their games on PS3? Even if 360 users did buy more diverse games the article is comparing major multiplatform titles. And FF XIII is one of the biggest.
PS3 does not need a few more million people to pick games likey SF IV. Sales for that type of game are already nearly 50/50. Some games will continue to sell better on 360 and some may not. Not every game has to sell more on 360 in order for them to come closer in sales. Each title will have different people interested in it.
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Joe80 posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 2:26PM PST on March 22, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining@oznerol,
I don't think the article is assuming that the ratio of PS3 to 360 should stay the same, they based their deductions on actual sales over a yearly period. Many 360 owners own more games than PS3 owners, they may not be interested in as many new games because they already have a lot more.
I don't know why we shouldn't count UK sales as part of worldwide comparison of console sales. Just because the console gets more sales in different territories doesn't mean those should not be considered for being behind or pulling ahead.
Just because a sequel sells less doesn't mean it should be ignored for comparisons.
Just because a game is more attractive on one console or another for control or content reasons doesn't mean it should be not considered.
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Joe80 posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 2:20PM PST on March 22, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining@deftangel,
Did you read the article and look at all the game comparisons? I agree that 360 userbase is not as intereste in SF IV, but there has been a significant downward trend utilizing the data of near 100 games.
I don't understand how comparisons of multiplatform sales between 2 consoles is meaningless. We're not talking about hardware, we're talking about multiplatform software sales. You can't compare anything more directly than what they did.
The fact that some people don't buy a game for a platform they own is somehow supposed to dictate how software sales are doing between the 2 consoles?
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deftangel posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 1:55PM PST on March 22, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining@PhilHarrision,
Er no, the attach rate is clearly quite high. A more diverse userbase simply buy a wider variety of games, partly because the 360's library is also much bigger than the PS3's.
Users who jump into the console cycle early buy more games. The 360 is much further along it's cycle and at a far more mass market price. Comparing the software buying habits of these two bases in this fashion is simply apples to oranges.
The vast majority of the target demographic of gamers who want to play Street Fighter IV, for example, are likely to already have purchased their next gen console be it a PS3 or an Xbox 360. If and when the PS3 gets to the same install base as the Xbox 360, it's not necessairly going to pick up a few more million users interested in purchasing games like SF:IV. The article is assuming that if the PS3 had X million more units sold, it would sell Y more copies of game Z than the 360. That doesn't stack up in reality.
Oh and there is no source for the data quoted, so I have to assume its VGChartz which just makes it more bollocks really.
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oznerol posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 12:10PM PST on March 22, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly DecliningCorrelation does not equal causation.
There's a few things swaying this data - first, it doesn't take into account total number of consoles out nor the total number of games sold.
PS3 has been outselling the 360 in EU regularly, so games like Fifa and Pro Evo (which sell a ton in the UK but hardly any in the US) would surely shift greatly as the PS3 entered more UK homes.
Sales of Madden have stagnated - and in a way have declined.
Guitar Hero World Tour is nowhere near the seller Guitar Hero III was.
SFIV for the PS3 has done as well as the 360 due to the 360's awful D-pad (at least, that is my personal opinion).
What the article is (wrongly) assuming, is that regardless of the total number of units sold, the ratio of PS3 to 360 should stay the same. This is not the case.
The ratios will definitely grow closer as the PS3 continues to sell, though. And as for the thesis of this article - FF XIII for PS3 outselling the 360 version - it's possible - but not due to the "trend" discovered by this article. There will just be more PS3s out there than there was in 2007 (where the 360 was already out for a year). That, and the game is a JRPG which is favored in regions where the PS3 is more popular (I'm looking at you, Japan).
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PhilHarrision posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 11:09AM PST on March 22, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining@deftangel,If Xbox users are so 'diverse' that the 'buy less games' wouldn't that mean that xbox would have a low attachment rate? It doesn't.
The point of the article, imo, is not ONE game like SFIV...it is looking at trendlines and the trendline looks like it is moving in a certain direction here.
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deftangel posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 6:06AM PST on March 22, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly DecliningThere is nothing profound in this article at all.
Just because the Xbox 360 has twice the userbase, it does not mean they have twice the userbase interested in buying Street Fighter IV. A larger and more diverse audience, certainly including more casual consumers who buy less games renders these comparisons pretty meaningless.
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Joe80 posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 11:29PM PST on March 21, 2009. RE: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly Declining@OuterHaven,
Wow. I wasn't expecting this type of article, in terms of what it contains withint it. Truly remarkable research. Maybe this is one of the things Sony is looking at when they talk about momentum, I dunno. I definitely didn't think they had gained that much. I do think some franchises will continue to sell better on 360 though, such as COD. But this sure is interesting!
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OuterHaven posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 10:48PM PST on March 21, 2009. Article: MS Multi-Platform Sales Trend Majorly DecliningThroughout the year, it is assumed that the Playstation 3 will gain more ground with regards to multi-platform titles and going in to 2010, the Playstation 3 could very well have turned the tables. Street Fighter IV and Resident Evil 5 have had fairly even sales on both platforms and given the fact that Final Fantasy XIII is scheduled to come out in 2010, the pendulum may swing the other way. It is highly likely that Final Fantasy XIII would sell more on the Playstation 3 than the Xbox 360.
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About Us - The simExchange is the video game stock market and the source for video game sales forecasts.
To have any of one console's multiplatform titles gaining in sales to another console's does not require gains in hardware marketshare. Yes, that would easily make it more possible, but it is not a requirement.
I don't know specific figures for PS3 and 360 hardware marketshare for 2007 vs 2008, but its obvious 360's lead hasn't diminished in that timeframe. Did you find hardware sales figures for those years? What I do know is that 360 maintained its lead overall and both 360 and PS3 gained millions. I would say the ratio changed slightly favorable to PS3 as if both systems sold about the same in the past year worldwide, then that would push the ratio for 360 to PS3 lower.
360 is selling better monthly recently, yet its lead for many titles is not increasing, and it has had recent price cuts which help recent monthly sales, while PS3 is due for one, which should show up this year. Meaning it's hard to say 360's hardware lead will continue to increase, it may also dwindle.
What's wrong with comparing sequels? Also, not every game compared is a sequel. I see them comparing the biggest titles, most of those are sequels.
Your comparison should be +2.3 to +2.5. Are you talking about hardware only with those Evo comparisons? It seems like you are as that data does not match up to the game's sales. So you've proved that PS3's hardware marketshare in EU has increased faster than 360's. That would help suggest that some future multiplatform games might sell more on PS3 if it continues significantly.
Sales of sequels are unpredictable much more from an overall sales comparison than from a distribution on each console comparison within the same generation, which is what we are comparing here.
If people don't spend money on a sequel they're likely to spend it on another game, that's why they compared so many games and why we should. So if you see sales go way down for one game you should see the other games on the same console rising relatively, but that doesn't look like it has occurred enough on 360 across all the games compared.
Yes I would expect such a slowdown in the ratio shift from when barely any PS3's were on market. That is one reason why PS3 has gained in multiplatform marketshare - there weren't many PS3's on the market. Also with more 360's already sold it is more likely future owners will be buying PS3 as a second system than PS3 owners buying 360 as a second system, simply because more already owned 360. This is not as big a factor, but is still one of many as each of those who decide on what system add a sale to that system and take away one from the other simultaneously.
Sorry if any of that is convoluted, I am busy with work right now.