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Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Wii)
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Daily Volume 99 Total Volume 1,154,988
(11/4/07 - 12/1/07)
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328K
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328K
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| Total Volume | 908,034 |
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| Daily Volume | 0 |
| Total Volume | 104,800 |
| Publisher | Sega (US, Europe), Nintendo (Japan) | Studio | Sega | Genre | Sports |
| Release Dates |  |
11/6/07 |  |
11/22/07 |  |
11/23/07 |  |
12/21/07 |
Mario and Sonic meet for the first time as two of the most popular game franchises of all time collide in "Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games". Players will take control of their favorite characters from both series and compete in Olympic events such as the 100m Dash, Table Tennis, and Swimming. This title will attempt to take advantage of the Nintendo Wii's unique control system and will also be released for the Nintendo DS.
"Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games" is expected for a holiday release in 2007 before the 2008 Olympic games in Beijing.
Confirmed Characters:
Mario
Sonic
Luigi
Knuckles
Yoshi
Tails
Sales:
December 2007: 613,000 (US) (Source)
November 2007: 328,314 (US) (Source)
See also Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (DS)
bids
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M&S sold more than 5m copies (Wii & DS combined)
Nextgen - March 5, 2008
Submitted by starship (22) at 7:44AM PST on March 5, 2008
The game has rocketed off of the blocks since its debut, topping sales charts both in the US and abroad. And while 5 million copies is a major milestone, Sega is expecting to sell even more. "There have only been three months so far and the Olympics themselves are another four months away," Jeffery said. "We're expecting to sell quite a few million more globally, hopefully between now and the end of this year."
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37
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Sega Predicts 4 Million For Mario and Sonic
Kotaku - September 21, 2007
Submitted by Just_Ben (12) at 7:40AM PST on September 21, 2007
Sega is counting on the Wii rekindling of a 16-year old rivalry will match the sales of the first shot fired in the Mario VS Sonic war back in 1991. The original Sonic The Hedgehog sold 4 million copies, and Sega's Masanao Maeda says Mario and Sonic at the Olympic games will do the same.
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UK: M&S Wii sold more than 500k in its first 7 week
Chart Track - February 11, 2008
Submitted by starship (22) at 11:21AM PST on February 11, 2008
Sega’s ‘Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games’ climbs 2 places to No2 (+85%) thanks to the arrival of the DS version to accompany the huge-selling Wii version (half a million sales in its first 7 weeks).
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Q&A: Sega, Nintendo on the first Sonic-Mario game
Gamespot - March 27, 2007
Submitted by mithrilwind (190) at 6:10AM PST on July 7, 2007
Scott Steinberg and Perrin Kaplan tell GameSpot how the two game icons qualified for the Olympics.
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Mario & Sonic to keep Sega running until Xmas in UK
MCVUK - June 2, 2008
Submitted by Mushashi (6) at 7:40AM PST on June 2, 2008
New UK TV ad amongst huge new marketing plan as top five Christmas place is targeted. Sega is embarking on its first re-marketing of a catalogue title in a bid to keep Mario and Sonic in the UK All Formats top five until Christmas. The ambitious target has been set after the Wii and DS title clocked up 1.2m sales in the UK since launch last year. “We will re-advertise this title heavily and continue re-marketing it all through the year,We’ve sustained sales at 25,000 a week."
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4 bids
@apujanata,
Well GoNintendo posted a PR from France where they talk about advertising the game some more for Xmas 2009. (700k combined in France by the way).
http://gonintendo.com/?p=64948
It's also easily Top 20 still in the UK so it is still selling. If your LTD estimate is correct I would see the current prediction as "attainable". I'm not sure it would sell that many but with it still charting, a possible budget release on the horizon and the Wii install base ramping up at an alarming rate, I certainly wouldn't short it.
The lack of decent 3rd party games on the Wii can't be hurting it either. It's been out a year now.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 34 ]1 bids
@deftangel,
It would really help if you can give the URL to that Sega statement, since it is crucial for the GLS prediction. Any updated shipment figure from Sega ?
According to you, the range should be be 6.5, with maybe maximum range is 7 Million. Right now, the price is 748, about 7% higher than your maximum figure.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 23 ] [ Rank: 4 ]1 bids
@apujanata,
Actually I thought I heard from Sega that this had been selling OK since even the Olympics. I might be wrong...
I cashed out at 6.5m and I'd say that sort of ball park is definitely attainable, if not a little more.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 34 ]1 bids
I believe that this stock is overpriced.
NPD # is around 2.1 Million. Japan is 600K, and Europe should be around 3 Million (converted from UK's 1 Million LTD # a.k.a. Diamond ELSPA award), which give us 5.7 Million total. Let's round them up to 6 Million, LTD, WW. Since Olympic is over, this game shouldn't see any significant sales increase in the future.
Any thought / comment on my analysis ?
[ Oracle ] [ Level 23 ] [ Rank: 4 ]-1 bids
15 bids
Joe80 posted on Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Wii) at 11:15AM PST on July 25, 2008. Article: Has Sold Over 1 Million in UK Alone4 bids
apujanata posted on Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Wii) at 10:59PM PST on July 18, 2008. RE: Mario & Sonic Sold 10+ Mil on Wii & DS@JoshuaJSlone,
Thanks for reminding me about analyzing Japan.
To go into more detail about Japan market & data :
Wii version, released on Nov 22, 2007. DS version, released on Jan 17, 2008.
On Feb 17, 2008, one month after DS version release, Wii # is 510,465, and DS # is 221,540. On Jun 23, 2008, the cut off date for Famitsu Top 100 H1 2008, Wii # is 561,003, and DS # is 325,647.
Means the delta is : 50,538 for Wii version and 104,107 for DS Version.
Of course, above comparison might not be good, since DS version is only one month old by Feb 17, while Wii version is 3 month by Feb 17.
Difference analysis can be done using 3 months after launch :
From Feb 18 (3 months after launch) to Jun 23 (18 weeks), weekly rate is 2.8K / week for Wii
From Apr 13 (3 months after launch) to Jun 23 (10 weeks), weekly rate is 3.2K / week for DS.
I agree with Joshua's statement, that DS vs Wii version is about 50:50 in Q2 2008.
This means, we should use 45:55 instead of 40:60 to estimate the DS vs Wii share. Using previous analysis, 45:55 bring us to 4.05 Million for DS, and 4.95 Million to Wii (for condition as of NOW). To calculate GLS, if we think that Olympic (August 8, 2008) will bring another 10% - 20% sales to this game, then GLS should be 4.86 for DS and 5.9 for Wii (I use 20% increase).
Which mean :
- correct GLS price of Wii version
- DS version is underpriced (3.28 Million vs. 4.86 Million), or translated : 48% profit Margin for this.
I am going to invest more in this stock. 4 Million is still far away.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 23 ] [ Rank: 4 ]3 bids
JoshuaJSlone posted on Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Wii) at 9:45PM PST on July 18, 2008. RE: Mario & Sonic Sold 10+ Mil on Wii & DS@apujanata,
Of course this isn't necessarily indicative of what's going on across all regions, but since there's plenty of available Japanese data we can at least look at the split there.
From the mid-year Famitsu Top 100, the split between them was 37% DS, 63% Wii. The Wii version had a pretty big advantage in launching two months sooner and being able to benefit from holiday sales at the end of last year. However, what little we can tell of Q2 2008 sales looks pretty similar between them, so if that holds DS might take a few more of those percent.
[ Veteran ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 42 ]1 bids
Joe80 posted on Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Wii) at 9:26PM PST on July 18, 2008. RE: Mario & Sonic Sold 10+ Mil on Wii & DS@apujanata,
I think your comments have merit. I also think this game is more popular on Wii than on DS than other Wii vs DS games are. One reason is the controls, especially given the nature of the game. I think it would be much more fun on Wii. Also the DS version released in early 08, while the Wii game got the hype from releasing in late 07.
So I don't know what to make of it all. Maybe I see a slightly higher ratio in favor of the Wii in comparison to the DS version. I'm also kicking myself for not investing in them more before posting this news, but I was just so hesitant.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 23 ] [ Rank: 2 ]
About Us - The simExchange is the video game stock market and the source for video game sales forecasts.
Looks like my Europe prediction for M&S is too high. I assumed 3 Million, using UK = 33% of Europe, while it should be using 42%. This in reinforced by the fact that France, the 2nd biggest Europe Market, only have 700K combined sales. If we assumed 400-450K Wii version sales, it means 1.5 Million for UK+France, which is about 60% - 65% of Europe. German, the 3rd market, is big, but mostly PC based. 2.5 Million for Europe should be closer to actual.
Having said that, shorting this stock is one of stupid thing I have ever done. I forgot that I shouldn't put a short when the profit margin is so low, especially against Wii games.
Well, luckily I am not too deep into this one (only 1 Million DKP short, after partial bail out today), so not big potential loss for me (of course, losing DKP still hurts :D ).