@Demon_Gaara007,
I think you forgot about Europe and Japan. If the GLS is only for US, then you are right, 55 DKP is too high. But since GLS is worldwide, I think 55 DKP is reasonable.

@apujanata,

I've already driven the price up as much as I can without reaching the 35% limit for how much I can move into one stock. It seems like really easy money to me, though there's a slight chance I'm horrifically wrong. But really, even if I'm off with the 6-7 estimate, to cash out at 3.15 it would have to sell less in this whole month than it did in just the first week. And if you think that it will sell less than 70K this month, I don't see how you expect it to reach anything above 450K over its lifetime. Like I've said, I think the sales for this game will decrease more slowly than they do for most big name games that sell out on the first day. But I don't see it declining so slowly that the GLS could cash out at the 55 DKP that it's at right now. It would need to keep selling 70K per month for the next 7 months, which means that it would maintain the maximum you're predicting for the first full month, all the way until the end of November. I just don't see that happening.

I'm not totally sure how this hasn't been noticed yet, but there's something extremely wrong with the prediction for either the April future or the lifetime stock, or more likely both of them. Currently, the GLS is priced at 55.05 DKP and the April future is at 3.16 DKP. There was only one week of sales before the April sales month began, and if the sales are actually so low for the first full month of this game's release, there's no way it will sell as well as expected worldwide. Now, because this isn't a big-name release it shouldn't have such a fast drop in sales, since not too many people would have rushed out to get it in the very first week. But even though I think Ninja Gaiden: DS will sell more steadily than most games, I don't see how it would be possible to sell over a half million copies. Other countries aren't buying enough to cause such a huge difference between the monthly US sales and the worldwide totals, and for 55 DKP to be a reasonable estimate, the April future would need to be around 15 DKP or more, judging from how other games sell. Now, it seems pretty clear that NG: DS won't sell that much, but I'd say that around 6 or 7 DKP would be more reasonable for the future. Because it most likely won't be selling enough to reach 550,000 copies over its life, the GLS stock should come down considerably. Based on my estimates for April, and considering the confirmed 32K sales in the first week of release, I would say that 28 to 35 DKP would be a better lifetime estimate.

Short Version: April future is probably undervalued. I'm thinking it'll sell around 6 or 7 DKP worth. ||| Lifetime stock is definitely overvalued. I'm not totally sure how much it is overpriced, but I'm guessing it's worth between 28 and 35 DKP, as long as the future is anything close to what I'm predicting.