@apujanata,
I also have a small short position. Although I said it was very risky a few weeks ago, I've since decided it is less so.

I also saw that post on neogaf. It's interesting, but as it's just one person I don't want to put too much stock in it. My reasons for shorting are that I think this rose on the back of certain assumptions which may not prove to be correct. For example, I still think people are underestimating sales of the arcade pack. I'm hoping we'll get some news about the split in the coming weeks or months.

There's also the news of the additional bundles for Europe which do not include Lego Indy, instead bundling games which are more suited to hardcore gamers. I also question the availability of the bundle. It was announced for release in Europe on 17 October, but so far I have yet to see any sign of it in the UK. (See Game's current selection of bundles here.) If anyone in the UK has seen it, please post.

There are still lots of uncertainties though, so I'm keeping my short position quite small for now.

@apujanata,

Quite right, and so i have revised my estimate of 2.5million as a conservative estimate down to simply being what i expect total sales to be.

@soupsoup,
@apujanata,

I don't have any sources to justify my feelings so I willing to accept your skepticism and place the Arcade SKU at 35% in Europe making it 65% for the premium and elite models for the sake of this discussion. Which would place the premium and elite sales at about a million and this alters down my calculation 180k copies of the game and so 2070k total from the bundle. Add in the 500k and you have a new total of 2570k and the price reflects this quite nicely.

However, to me this is a VERY conservative estimate based on the assumption the bundle will continue throughout the holiday period, as i have used the most negative amounts reasonable and i am happy to have my current long position, going short would be VERY risky in my opinion. I can see this easily doing 3million, as long as the bundle is maintained through the holidays, and even higher if it is continued beyond like the Forza2/ Marvel:UA bundle was. In that situation i would think it could even reach upwards of 4million, although that is being very optimistic.

@vGInfidel,
I see. Since my calculation is based on incorrect assumption, I think your estimate are the better one, since it is based on correct assumptions. I am still a little bit uncomfortable with assuming 20% arcade in Europe, since there is no supporting evidence of that assumptions.

I can only say that I am happy that I don't have any short on this stock, and I am also a little bit sad that I missed this opportunity (going from 83 DKP to 248 DKP in 3 days mean that I could have had 1 - 2 Million profit from this stock alone).

The only question is how well X360 are going to sell this holiday. If it is as estimate, 3.5 Million is within reach. If it is going worse than expected, then we have a good profit potential here (I wouldn't hold my breath hoping for this scenario to happen).

@apujanata,

Interesting calculation, although i disagree on a couple of points.

First i believe in Europe that the price is so close now between the Arcade and Premium systems ($60) that Arcade sales will not be as high as 35% espcially given the new bundle makes up that difference, and that a hard drive is so essential now that the NXE takes up 256mb of the memory card. I estimate more like 20% will be arcade systems in Europe. I expect the difference to be higher in NA as obviously its a $100 price jump between them so i will accept your 35% for there.

Please bear in mind i think that the hardware estimates we are giving are on the low side given that it is from Oct 17th through to some point in January presumeably.

NA - 2million x 65% = 1.3million
EU - 1.5million x 80% = 1.2million

So 2.5million total. Now you are expecting that only 75% of sales will be the bundle because of a price difference but that is not so, this article here states that the price will remain the same even with the games.

Why would they keep the old unbundled versions supplied to retailers? They will not sell as consumers know that they can get two free games (even if they dont really want them) if they go and buy from another store, dont forget retailers will be presuring MS to have the best bundles in their stores so they dont lose out on sales.

MS would have been pushing the new bundles into the supply channels for a few weeks now i expect; (a UK retailer last week salshed prices by $60 in a deal that ends just before the bundle is released, presumably to clear stock) but i am trying to make a conservative estimate here. So is it fair to expect a maximum of 10% to be the old supply?

So 90% of sales are the new bundle which means 2.25million. (My original estimate so it turns out even given the extra calculation :))

I presonally think this is a conservative estimate of 2.25million of the jump in sales we can expect from the new bundle. Once you add in another 500k from sales already (again on the low side) then we are looking at 2.75million plus.