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RE: October NPD Sales Data
at 11:19PM PST on November 15, 2007.
You can't blame traders for the correction in PC stocks. Since this site has been around, PC stocks have trade at irrationally high levels because we never received any data (not even VGChartz) as to how they were selling. The drops in PC stock were entirely rational because this title gives a sampling of data.
Should the next futures show higher sales (say, above 200,000 units sold each), this could reverse. For what it's worth, I think most of them are still overpriced. I'm curious, why do you think it is a good time to invest in them? Do you have any historical data to suggest that their lifetime sales will be higher?
Also, don't forget about the spectre of piracy. These games begin by suffering from a fragmented and non-standard install base, but they also exist in a market that is much more prone to piracy.
A couple of years ago, Forbes ran a story about the hundreds of millions of dollars lost through PC game piracy. At that time, PC gaming sales were decreasing by 12% per year, while console sales were increasing by 5%.
Last year a developer on ET:QW decribed piracy as "destroying the PC market".
This isn't a new problem. However, it hits the PC game market particularly hard and traders should take that into account with their predictions. Most people will be more willing to burn a disc to pirate a PC game, but far fewer will risk modding their console and potentially wrecking it.
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