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March 2008 NPD Data


Correction: Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Vegas 2 (PS3) sold 154,700 units

Video game hardware sales in March were in line with the market's expectations. Total hardware units came in at 2.235 million units (excluding the PlayStation 2), 0.59% above the market's expected 2.222 million units.

Although the market accurately predicted the total market for hardware, Nintendo took significant market share from its competitors this month even beyond what was expected. The Nintendo DS sold 698,000 units compared to the expected 613,600 units. Nintendo Wii sold 721,000 units compared to an expected 642,200 units.

The Xbox 360 retook its lead over the PS3, sliding ahead with 262,000 units against the PS3's 257,000 units. Both platforms underperformed the markets expectations, leading us to believe that the Wii and DS had directly taken market share from these two consoles.

The Sony PSP sold a very respectable 297,000 units, 9.48% below the expected 328,000 units.

Growth in video game sales were well ahead of expectations for March. Total video game software sales grew 63% from $579.1 million in March 2007 to $945.6 million. The simExchange prediction market expected $842.7 million.

The month's big winner was Nintendo's Super Smash Bros Brawl with 2.7 million units, dethroning the reigning champion, Activision's Call of Duty 4, which came in 9th this month.

Sales of Ubisoft's Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Vegas 2 (Xbox 360) beat out EA's competing Army of Two (Xbox 360) on the Xbox 360 platform; however, the PS3 version of Army of Two came ahead of Ubisoft's counterpart.

PSP hits God of War: Chains of Olympus and Crisis Core: Final Fantasy 7 both sold beyond the market's expectations with very strong opening month results.

The following tables compare market expectations on the simExchange and actual results as reported by the NPD Group.

  • US Hardware in March 2008

    Title Actual units Expected units % From Expected
    Nintendo Wii 721,000 642,200 +12.27%
    Nintendo DS 698,000 613,600 +13.75%
    PlayStation Portable 297,000 328,100 -9.48%
    Xbox 360 262,000 307,600 -14.82%
    PLAYSTATION 3 257,000 330,400 -22.22%
    PlayStation 2 216,000 -- --
    Total Hardware Units 2,235,000 2,221,900 +0.59%


How exactly does this work?

Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using virtual currency called DKP, players buy virtual futures contracts that are under-predicting sales and short sell futures that are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market."

About the predictions

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as (1) the diversity of the pool of traders increases and as (2) more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).



Tags: simexchange predictionmarkets prediction+markets wisdomofcrowds web2.0


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