@Gaara42,
I think the people who picked up CoD4 for the 360 are going to be like the people who picked up CoD3 for the 360. I doubt that a 360 owner who picked up CoD3 is now going to be buying the PS3 version or a Wii game instead. The people who supported the series in the past will support it again because it is the type of game they want to play, and even more now that CoD4 is so much better than CoD3 was.

Pilias I'll be honest with you, in the hope that you will take that as a positive thing and not look at me negatively for telling you. I bid your comment that "CoD3 released in late NOV" down, but I did before you asked who downbid you. Apparently, someone else downbidded you before me, and then someone else upbidded you.

Every place I've check has shown CoD3 release date as NOV 7 for NA. Since we are talking about the Futures, I think it was understood that we were talking about the NA release date. Where did you see the release date?

@Joe80,

Valid point, but I think that CoD4 has to deal with two, more entrenched consoles than its predecessor did during the last holiday season. Last year the PS3 and Wii had just been launched and neither had a large user base. Now a year later the Wii has a user base equal (or larger) than the Xbox360s and the PS3 has a user base large enough to syphon off sales from this game on the Xbox360. Also, Gears of War was like Halo, while I think that CoD4 will be a great game, I don't think it is on the level of GoW or Halo, so I don't think it will sustain high sales like GoW did. Due to these reasons I still think that the December 2007 CoD4 future is overvalued, though maybe it should be in the 43-50DKP range.

@Joe80,
keep in mind that CoD 3 released in late Nov not early Nov, they only had 1-2 weeks of sales in Nov.

Re: December 2007 NPD Future

This future is overvalued. Looking at most past Xbox360 'hardcore' games, they have a huge drop off between first month and second month sales, and especially since this will be available nearly the whole month of November, I think most of the sales will occur during that month. I do not think that this game will be helped by Christmas sales because most of the people that would want to play it will have already picked this game up. I think a price of 35DKP seems more realistic, and even that may be to high.

Just look at the large drop off between Bioshock first month and second month sales (490,900 August 2007 vs 150,000 September 2007) and between Madden 08 first month and second month sales (896,600 August 2007 vs 173,000 September 2007). Neither of those games even had the full first month available to them for sales, which means CoD4, which has the whole month of November to sell, should have an even larger drop off.

From all of this 35DKP seems like the max amount this should be for the December 2007 Future.