@Just_Ben,
The insistence that Wii games "show legs" isn't really true. It will show legs for games that involve their first party IPs. Tiger Woods PGA Tour golf is not a first party IP. The cross section of people who will buy a Tiger Woods game for Wii is small, and due to a number of factors, I think this game is essentially done selling. There may be another 100k that trickle in over the lifetime of the stock (which I've accounted for in my prediction).
On a related note, I don't buy the argument that just because a game is released for Wii means it will sell forever. If you look at the VGC (I know, I know) Top 50 for the week ending Oct 13th, there are 6 Wii games. SIX. Two of them are non-Nintendo IP,MySims and Bleach: Shattered Blade. That's in it's first week on the chart. Do you want to wager where it will be on it's second week on the chart? Third party games do not do well for Wii, long term, in my opinion. While I don't think VGC's numbers are right for our purposes, the trends they reveal make perfect sense to me.
The insistence that Wii games "show legs" isn't really true. It will show legs for games that involve their first party IPs. Tiger Woods PGA Tour golf is not a first party IP. The cross section of people who will buy a Tiger Woods game for Wii is small, and due to a number of factors, I think this game is essentially done selling. There may be another 100k that trickle in over the lifetime of the stock (which I've accounted for in my prediction).
On a related note, I don't buy the argument that just because a game is released for Wii means it will sell forever. If you look at the VGC (I know, I know) Top 50 for the week ending Oct 13th, there are 6 Wii games. SIX. Two of them are non-Nintendo IP,MySims and Bleach: Shattered Blade. That's in it's first week on the chart. Do you want to wager where it will be on it's second week on the chart? Third party games do not do well for Wii, long term, in my opinion. While I don't think VGC's numbers are right for our purposes, the trends they reveal make perfect sense to me.