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Tiger Woods PGA Tour 08 (Wii) NPD August 2007
forecasts
32K
copies
Today's change:
0.00 (0.00%)
Daily Volume 0 Total Volume 1,095,933
| Publisher | EA Tiburon | Studio | EA Sports | Genre | Sports | Release Date | 08/28/07 |
This future contract pays 1 DKP for each 10,000 units of Tiger Woods PGA Tour 08 (Wii) sold in the US in the retail month of August 2007 according to the NPD Group. This retail month runs from August 5, 2007 to September 1, 2007. This contract expires at 11:30 PM PST on September 12, 2007.
bids
8
8
Hands-on Tiger Woods PGA Tour 08
IGN - August 6, 2007
Submitted by yamaro (41) at 4:37AM PST on August 7, 2007
We're still pretty early on in Tiger Woods 08, having only briefly checked out the mini-games and quick play modes, with the full-blown Career Mode and multiplayer challenges still waiting, but thus far our general consensus is that Tiger Woods 08 still falls under some of its 07 issues, and is by no means a perfect golf game. At the same time, a few of the core changes are for the better, as long as Wii owners understand the very serious disclaimer that Tiger Woods 08 looks exactly like 07, falls under some of the same traps as 07, and includes no Wi-Fi support or PS2-supported "ESPN Integration," which is a definite downside. Madden, Live, and FIFA all ship with full Wi-Fi this year, and we're baffled that Tiger Woods is again getting the shaft. Still, the core game is improved from what we can tell, so hardcore golf fanatics still may want to keep this one in the "maybe" section of your wishlist.
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1 bids
@MasterTrader,
I closed it out a while ago, but 20 is still a good price, I think.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 19 ]1 bids
1 bids
@kspraydad,
In all seriousness, there is a little bit of play to what I will concede this stock should be at. Like I said, I personally think this shouldn't crack 20 DKP by the time it's going to be delisted, but I can see how people would think 25 would be more reasonable. Certainly nothing more than 25 DKP is reasonable.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 19 ]2 bids
@feelmyring,
I'm sure we can count on VG to capture that .04 difference!
[ Oracle ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 18 ]2 bids
@kspraydad,
I went from 25 to 20 back to 25, trying to incorporate some dissenting arguments into my equation. Personally, I don't think it should be any more than 20, but others seem to think that there's a little more life in the stock. Certainly not more than, say, 25.04 DKP, though. ; )
[ Oracle ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 19 ]1 bids
@feelmyring,
In the space of 11 days you have gone from 20dkp being 'the absolute tops' that this game should be valued at to Oct 30th saying 25 tops...
At this pace will we see 40 by December? :)
What is changing in your analysis that adds 50,000 to sales in 11 days?
[ Oracle ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 18 ]4 bids
3 bids
@Just_Ben,
The insistence that Wii games "show legs" isn't really true. It will show legs for games that involve their first party IPs. Tiger Woods PGA Tour golf is not a first party IP. The cross section of people who will buy a Tiger Woods game for Wii is small, and due to a number of factors, I think this game is essentially done selling. There may be another 100k that trickle in over the lifetime of the stock (which I've accounted for in my prediction).
On a related note, I don't buy the argument that just because a game is released for Wii means it will sell forever. If you look at the VGC (I know, I know) Top 50 for the week ending Oct 13th, there are 6 Wii games. SIX. Two of them are non-Nintendo IP,MySims and Bleach: Shattered Blade. That's in it's first week on the chart. Do you want to wager where it will be on it's second week on the chart? Third party games do not do well for Wii, long term, in my opinion. While I don't think VGC's numbers are right for our purposes, the trends they reveal make perfect sense to me.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 19 ]2 bids
@Gaara42,
I can't provide examples of ANY games that the "times 3" principal applies to. The way that Powertrade made it sound is that it was an accepted model to use. It also seems to fit with what I think the stock will do, so I used it for my calculation.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 19 ]
About Us - The simExchange is the video game stock market and the source for video game sales forecasts.
I just re-opened my short, based on this formula/assumptions:
VGC# times either .85 or .90 (for NPD difference) + Adjusted VGC# times .80 (historical contribution from "Others"). In this case, it's 110000(.875) + 93500(.80) = 17.32 DKP.
My "range" is 16.83-17.82, based on whether you think VGC "shoots" for 10 or 15% over NPD numbers.