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Tiger Woods PGA Tour 08 (Wii)
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@feelmyring,
Not disagree with you, but could you provide examples of other games that the "times 3" rule applies to? I want to make sure it is a valid principle before I start believing it.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 3 ]4 bids
@Just_Ben,
I'm using two sets of data. One is VGC for the TREND, not the numbers. I've gotten screwed by them too many times to trust the numbers, but as I've been saying for 2 months, the trends are mostly reliable. The other is the August NPD Future.
Showing my work:
The August NPD Future settled at 3.19, which unless I'm seriously mistaken, means it sold 31900 copies in the first month of sales. Taking the "times 3" principal applied by Powertrade, that gives 95700 copies in the US. Then, taking the VGC trend for Tiger 07 on the Wii, we see that "other" regions total 80% of the US total. So, 95700*(.8)=76560. 95700 US copies + 76560 "other" copies = 172260 copies total, lifetime worldwide.
Check my math, and my logic, but I think it's pretty irrefutable that this game shouldn't be valued at any more than 20 DKP. Unless someone can post reliable numbers for other regions, or a better argument why I'm wrong, this is what we have to go with.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 19 ]1 bids
@Just_Ben,
I agree with you, I think some people are overzealously trying to short this. Before I was somewhat agreeing, but looking at how Tiger Woods PGA Tour 07 sold, I doubt this version would sell half as much with a larger install base. This should probably be more in the 40-50DKP range as I think America sales will top out at 250,000 and PAL region sales will equal or sell a little less than America.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 3 ]2 bids
@feelmyring,
What? How many copys do you think the game sold in the US? VGC has it at 100 thousand in the US
The 07 version sold 720 thousand WW. So if the US+CA sales triple thats 300 thousand just there? Sorry, but you have to explain to me how do you come up with your numbers. As you said last one had EU = 80% of us, this one has 100 thousand US already, so that would mean 180 thousand WW? So the game will only sell 20 thousand from know on?
[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 14 ]2 bids
@rikitikitik,
Irregardless of PAL region sales, I think 300k copies is way overpriced. The trend from VGC suggests that there will be another 80% sales from other regions than US, based on Tiger 07. Assuming US sales can triple, that's 90k US, 72k for the rest of the world, for 162k overall. Looking at it further, I think 20DKP is the absolute top, not 25.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 19 ]3 bids
@feelmyring,
We might never get reliable numbers from the PAL regions. I just wanted to point out that the game is showing some staying power and is probably not as reliant on 1st month sales as other games.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 10 ]3 bids
@rikitikitik,
How many copies has it sold in the UK? I have no idea where to get reliable European sales data from. I don't really want to find euro-VGC.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 19 ]1 bids
@feelmyring,
But that 10% is for the US only, right? It's still charting in UK, FYI.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 10 ]3 bids
@Workwork,
I just wanted to remind everyone this game sold 10% of what we're projecting lifetime currently in it's first month. For a game series that relies on first month sales, this still has a ways to go. I agree with Alpha, 25 DKP absolute tops.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 19 ]
About Us - The simExchange is the video game stock market and the source for video game sales forecasts.
The game had 3 or 4 days in august on the shelfs. You are saying that the game will only tripple that sales over the lifetime? On a system that show legs to games? On a game that fit on its target audience (casual + wii mote golf controls?). Sorry, but I would think that first 4 days=next month in this case. Even madden showed only a drop by 50% and that game had 2 full weeks to work in August. And there may be revival at christmas sales. I don't know, I play Wii sports a lot with my girlfriend, and golf is on of their favorites. The game fits much better on the Wii than Madden, so the 300 thousand lifetime sold sounds very reasonable to me.