(1) Traders who don't pay attention to the price they are buying at (maybe they see the number but don't really think about if it is high or low).
I totally agree with you. In a sense, it becomes more a game of evaluating "general desire" for a game rather than trying to anticipate the number of copies that will be sold. There is a risk in buying these shares at overblown prices but it is fun to ride the wave of interest as it pushes the share price ever higher. Once sales figures start to come in though, smart people who understand the DKP concept will be rushing for the exits.
Tiger Woods games have sold as much as 1.44 million copies on PS2 (Tiger Woods 2004.)
I think the initial price of 250K is just as ridiculous as a 2M estimate. Tiger Woods 2007 did very well for a delayed port on a low install base.
Tiger Woods 2008 will have:
1. A full year to garner sales, instead of half that.
2. An Xmas season to garner sales during.
3. A much larger install base to sell into.
It should do leaps and bounds better than TW 2007. I don't know exactly how much TW 2007 sold, but I'm sure its more than 250K. The stock closed above 300K.
@feelmyring, I think people may also just differ strongly on what they think games will sell, eventhough it completely contradicts the sales of 07 version. There were tons of orders to buy Madden NFL 08 (Xbox 360) north of 250. The 07 version ended at 182.96. Maybe some people really thought Tiger Woods PGA Tour 08 could sell 2 million copies...
You would think people would stop buying at ridiculous prices if they had to put the stock price in themselves. Who manually bought Tiger Woods PGA Tour 08 (Wii) at 200 DKP???